On 2016-12-07 11:28, David Schwartz wrote:
> Puzzle me this guys … I know you don’t want to really face it but
> …
>
> What do you think programming will look like in 10-15 years?
>
> Here are a couple of facts (which I know some folks are allergic to in
> this day and age):
>
> *
>
> The US Dept of Labor has estimated a gross shortage of up to a million
> or so “programmers” by 2020, based on current needs and technology
>
> *
>
> While the initial costs of hiring H-1B candidates may be higher,
> there’s a far larger pool of them to choose from, and the vast
> majority of them are equivalent to people with graduates at the top of
> their classes at Stanford, MIT, and CMU. They’re given virtually
> permanent jobs (until their green cards issue, anyway) and whatever
> on-the-job training and relocation is needed to keep them useful. In
> return, they will never badmouth their employer or sue them for
> anything.
> *
>
> Americans, in turn, are “aging out” of the workforce in their late
> 30’s and 40’s, and there’s nowhere for them to go. Learning new
> skills “on the side” sounds good, but given two people of roughly
> equal skills, one of whom is 18-35 and the other is 45+, the younger
> person will get hired about 95% of the time.
> *
>
Get 10 of your buddies together, find a niche and start an agency.
> In my mind, this has one general result:
>
> ** American employers are going to do two things: (1) replace general
> programming tasks for new projects with automated solutions that have
> shorter lifespans; and (2) they’ll prefer to hire more
> highly-skilled foreigners on H-1B terms rather than Americans because
> they act more like the slaves that they are.
>
> You guys need to stop paying attention to right-wing talking heads
> making noise about “anchor babies” and all of that crap. While it
> sounds bad, it’s like worrying about being struck by lightening on a
> cloudless day. The numbers involved are infinitesimal in proportion to
> the total expenditures and budgets. The bottom-line here is, you’re
> complaining about our immigration laws — the same ones that
> right-wing talking heads keep saying don’t need to be fixed. Either
> advocate to fix our woefully inadequate broken immigration laws, or
> stop picking at scabs and screaming that they’re causing pain!
>
"fix our woefully inadequate broken immigration laws" is a left-wing
smoke screen. You mean unenforced immigration laws. And yes we need to
go back to requiring those who immigrate to have something to offer.
Hire American first.
> The common (nonsense) refrain against comprehensive immigration reform
> is: enforce the EXISTING laws! Ok, great. So what are you complaining
> about? Oh, wait … there are no provisions in existing laws to fix
> this crap. So go right ahead and keep on screaming like babies,
> because until the immigration laws are FIXED, nothing is going to
> change.
>
> It’s also good to realize that Sec. 1706 of the Tax Code, passed in
> 1985, is perhaps the single greatest ENABLER of everything that’s at
> work here. It’s not part of immigration laws, although it’s
> allowing foreigners to leverage the hell out of them.
Can you provide specifics?
>
> The low wages that foreigners are paid only exist because employers
> refuse to contract directly with the people they hire. So these slimy
> job shops hire H-1B people and promise them permanent employment until
> their green cards issue, and pay them $22/hr for work they’re
> billing out for ten times that ($200+). Americans don’t stand a
> chance, because the employers know that these people will never
> complain, never fail to show up for work, won’t lie, cheat, or
> steal, and most importantly, they won’t file lawsuits or complaints
> with NLRB.
>
> Looking at Uber, Lyft, Amazon, etc., one thing is perfectly clear:
> hiring contrators directly is going to land you in court sooner or
> later over claims they should have been treated as employees instead
> of contractors — regardless of how many disclaimers and legal forms
> you have them sign where the workers acknowledge that they’re NOT
> employees. (Uber alone has reportedly spent over $100M defending
> dozens of these stupid lawsuits, and they settled the biggest one
> lately in California for more than that.)
>
> So employers in the tech field don’t want to see 1706 repealed
> either. They’re happy hiring through job shops and not having to
> deal with these nuisance lawsuits.
>
> Suck it up, buttercup! Either lobby to overhaul existing immigration
> laws and overturn 1706, or just keep whining that foreigners are
> stealing our jobs.
>
> The people who have the greatest say in these matters — the
> companies that do the hiring — are very happy with things exactly
> the way they are. All of the “anchor baby” bullshit and costs to
> taxpayers is of no concern whatsoever to them, because they only want
> to see LOWER TAXES and FEWER REGULATIONS, which puts a bigger burden
> on taxpayers, not them.
>
> Right-wing talking heads advocate for corporate interests. You’re
> supporting corporations when you parrot those guys. They don’t care
> about how their policies affect taxpayers. All they know is, the less
> taxes they pay, and the fewer lawsuits they have to deal with from
> their workers, the more profits they make for shareholders.
>
> Back to the original question: where will programming be in 10-15
> years? It will be faster, easier, more reliable, and won’t involve
> programmers.
>
> Someone will initiate a conversation with Siri (say) and after a while
> an app will get built. If you need it changed, just tell Siri.
I'm not holding my breath. Cars are built by robots. Who builds the
robots?
A Program building a program? Who builds the first program? A
programmer. I don't see this happening in 10 - 15 years.
>
> No programming will be required.
>
> -David Schwartz
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--
Keith Smith
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