On 2016-12-07 11:28, David Schwartz wrote: > Puzzle me this guys … I know you don’t want to really face it but > … > > What do you think programming will look like in 10-15 years? > > Here are a couple of facts (which I know some folks are allergic to in > this day and age): > > * > > The US Dept of Labor has estimated a gross shortage of up to a million > or so “programmers” by 2020, based on current needs and technology > > * > > While the initial costs of hiring H-1B candidates may be higher, > there’s a far larger pool of them to choose from, and the vast > majority of them are equivalent to people with graduates at the top of > their classes at Stanford, MIT, and CMU. They’re given virtually > permanent jobs (until their green cards issue, anyway) and whatever > on-the-job training and relocation is needed to keep them useful. In > return, they will never badmouth their employer or sue them for > anything. > * > > Americans, in turn, are “aging out” of the workforce in their late > 30’s and 40’s, and there’s nowhere for them to go. Learning new > skills “on the side” sounds good, but given two people of roughly > equal skills, one of whom is 18-35 and the other is 45+, the younger > person will get hired about 95% of the time. > * > Get 10 of your buddies together, find a niche and start an agency. > In my mind, this has one general result: > > ** American employers are going to do two things: (1) replace general > programming tasks for new projects with automated solutions that have > shorter lifespans; and (2) they’ll prefer to hire more > highly-skilled foreigners on H-1B terms rather than Americans because > they act more like the slaves that they are. > > You guys need to stop paying attention to right-wing talking heads > making noise about “anchor babies” and all of that crap. While it > sounds bad, it’s like worrying about being struck by lightening on a > cloudless day. The numbers involved are infinitesimal in proportion to > the total expenditures and budgets. The bottom-line here is, you’re > complaining about our immigration laws — the same ones that > right-wing talking heads keep saying don’t need to be fixed. Either > advocate to fix our woefully inadequate broken immigration laws, or > stop picking at scabs and screaming that they’re causing pain! > "fix our woefully inadequate broken immigration laws" is a left-wing smoke screen. You mean unenforced immigration laws. And yes we need to go back to requiring those who immigrate to have something to offer. Hire American first. > The common (nonsense) refrain against comprehensive immigration reform > is: enforce the EXISTING laws! Ok, great. So what are you complaining > about? Oh, wait … there are no provisions in existing laws to fix > this crap. So go right ahead and keep on screaming like babies, > because until the immigration laws are FIXED, nothing is going to > change. > > It’s also good to realize that Sec. 1706 of the Tax Code, passed in > 1985, is perhaps the single greatest ENABLER of everything that’s at > work here. It’s not part of immigration laws, although it’s > allowing foreigners to leverage the hell out of them. Can you provide specifics? > > The low wages that foreigners are paid only exist because employers > refuse to contract directly with the people they hire. So these slimy > job shops hire H-1B people and promise them permanent employment until > their green cards issue, and pay them $22/hr for work they’re > billing out for ten times that ($200+). Americans don’t stand a > chance, because the employers know that these people will never > complain, never fail to show up for work, won’t lie, cheat, or > steal, and most importantly, they won’t file lawsuits or complaints > with NLRB. > > Looking at Uber, Lyft, Amazon, etc., one thing is perfectly clear: > hiring contrators directly is going to land you in court sooner or > later over claims they should have been treated as employees instead > of contractors — regardless of how many disclaimers and legal forms > you have them sign where the workers acknowledge that they’re NOT > employees. (Uber alone has reportedly spent over $100M defending > dozens of these stupid lawsuits, and they settled the biggest one > lately in California for more than that.) > > So employers in the tech field don’t want to see 1706 repealed > either. They’re happy hiring through job shops and not having to > deal with these nuisance lawsuits. > > Suck it up, buttercup! Either lobby to overhaul existing immigration > laws and overturn 1706, or just keep whining that foreigners are > stealing our jobs. > > The people who have the greatest say in these matters — the > companies that do the hiring — are very happy with things exactly > the way they are. All of the “anchor baby” bullshit and costs to > taxpayers is of no concern whatsoever to them, because they only want > to see LOWER TAXES and FEWER REGULATIONS, which puts a bigger burden > on taxpayers, not them. > > Right-wing talking heads advocate for corporate interests. You’re > supporting corporations when you parrot those guys. They don’t care > about how their policies affect taxpayers. All they know is, the less > taxes they pay, and the fewer lawsuits they have to deal with from > their workers, the more profits they make for shareholders. > > Back to the original question: where will programming be in 10-15 > years? It will be faster, easier, more reliable, and won’t involve > programmers. > > Someone will initiate a conversation with Siri (say) and after a while > an app will get built. If you need it changed, just tell Siri. I'm not holding my breath. Cars are built by robots. Who builds the robots? A Program building a program? Who builds the first program? A programmer. I don't see this happening in 10 - 15 years. > > No programming will be required. > > -David Schwartz > --------------------------------------------------- > PLUG-discuss mailing list - PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org > To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: > http://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss -- Keith Smith --------------------------------------------------- PLUG-discuss mailing list - PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: http://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss