Your Siri statement is interesting. On it's face you probably will see
some of this. And you will have to send your programmers to school to
learn how to talk to Siri so they get the outcome you want. QA might
even be further automated. So QA folks will have to get some
specialized training to know how to configure the "new" way of doing QA.
And maybe by that point everyone will start to bail on the new model and
learn how to garden and can.... etc. Maybe we will realize all we ever
needed was a 80486 processor and a micro floppy disk set of Linux.
I've seen a very drastic transformation in my lifetime. When I was a
small kid I picked up the phone and one of my neighbors was talking on
the phone with someone else. It was called the party line. There was a
man who supported his family by delivering milk to our door step. I
seem to recall men delivering ice blocks for a real ice box. That was a
long time ago.
I recall driving cross country using a map - a paper map. I remember
the police radio in the trunk was 35 lbs. And several years later they
were replaced by a 2 pound hand held.
Don't get me started on the Vettes, Chevelles, Novas, Mustangs, Hemi
cars.....
I remember my mother buying a transistor radio and paid extra to get the
one made in America.
I remember going down town to shop and there were hitching posts outside
some of the businesses.
When Siri comes in I think it will be time to do some other old
fashioned activity like sitting on the porch and watch the grass grow.
Until then, I think we are going to see some better days!!
On 2016-12-07 12:06, Keith Smith wrote:
> On 2016-12-07 11:28, David Schwartz wrote:
>> Puzzle me this guys … I know you don’t want to really face it but
>> …
>>
>> What do you think programming will look like in 10-15 years?
>>
>> Here are a couple of facts (which I know some folks are allergic to in
>> this day and age):
>>
>> *
>>
>> The US Dept of Labor has estimated a gross shortage of up to a million
>> or so “programmers” by 2020, based on current needs and technology
>>
>> *
>>
>> While the initial costs of hiring H-1B candidates may be higher,
>> there’s a far larger pool of them to choose from, and the vast
>> majority of them are equivalent to people with graduates at the top of
>> their classes at Stanford, MIT, and CMU. They’re given virtually
>> permanent jobs (until their green cards issue, anyway) and whatever
>> on-the-job training and relocation is needed to keep them useful. In
>> return, they will never badmouth their employer or sue them for
>> anything.
>> *
>>
>> Americans, in turn, are “aging out” of the workforce in their late
>> 30’s and 40’s, and there’s nowhere for them to go. Learning new
>> skills “on the side” sounds good, but given two people of roughly
>> equal skills, one of whom is 18-35 and the other is 45+, the younger
>> person will get hired about 95% of the time.
>> *
>>
>
> Get 10 of your buddies together, find a niche and start an agency.
>
>
>> In my mind, this has one general result:
>>
>> ** American employers are going to do two things: (1) replace general
>> programming tasks for new projects with automated solutions that have
>> shorter lifespans; and (2) they’ll prefer to hire more
>> highly-skilled foreigners on H-1B terms rather than Americans because
>> they act more like the slaves that they are.
>>
>> You guys need to stop paying attention to right-wing talking heads
>> making noise about “anchor babies” and all of that crap. While it
>> sounds bad, it’s like worrying about being struck by lightening on a
>> cloudless day. The numbers involved are infinitesimal in proportion to
>> the total expenditures and budgets. The bottom-line here is, you’re
>> complaining about our immigration laws — the same ones that
>> right-wing talking heads keep saying don’t need to be fixed. Either
>> advocate to fix our woefully inadequate broken immigration laws, or
>> stop picking at scabs and screaming that they’re causing pain!
>>
>
> "fix our woefully inadequate broken immigration laws" is a left-wing
> smoke screen. You mean unenforced immigration laws. And yes we need
> to go back to requiring those who immigrate to have something to
> offer.
>
> Hire American first.
>
>
>
>> The common (nonsense) refrain against comprehensive immigration reform
>> is: enforce the EXISTING laws! Ok, great. So what are you complaining
>> about? Oh, wait … there are no provisions in existing laws to fix
>> this crap. So go right ahead and keep on screaming like babies,
>> because until the immigration laws are FIXED, nothing is going to
>> change.
>>
>> It’s also good to realize that Sec. 1706 of the Tax Code, passed in
>> 1985, is perhaps the single greatest ENABLER of everything that’s at
>> work here. It’s not part of immigration laws, although it’s
>> allowing foreigners to leverage the hell out of them.
>
>
> Can you provide specifics?
>
>
>>
>> The low wages that foreigners are paid only exist because employers
>> refuse to contract directly with the people they hire. So these slimy
>> job shops hire H-1B people and promise them permanent employment until
>> their green cards issue, and pay them $22/hr for work they’re
>> billing out for ten times that ($200+). Americans don’t stand a
>> chance, because the employers know that these people will never
>> complain, never fail to show up for work, won’t lie, cheat, or
>> steal, and most importantly, they won’t file lawsuits or complaints
>> with NLRB.
>>
>> Looking at Uber, Lyft, Amazon, etc., one thing is perfectly clear:
>> hiring contrators directly is going to land you in court sooner or
>> later over claims they should have been treated as employees instead
>> of contractors — regardless of how many disclaimers and legal forms
>> you have them sign where the workers acknowledge that they’re NOT
>> employees. (Uber alone has reportedly spent over $100M defending
>> dozens of these stupid lawsuits, and they settled the biggest one
>> lately in California for more than that.)
>>
>> So employers in the tech field don’t want to see 1706 repealed
>> either. They’re happy hiring through job shops and not having to
>> deal with these nuisance lawsuits.
>>
>> Suck it up, buttercup! Either lobby to overhaul existing immigration
>> laws and overturn 1706, or just keep whining that foreigners are
>> stealing our jobs.
>>
>> The people who have the greatest say in these matters — the
>> companies that do the hiring — are very happy with things exactly
>> the way they are. All of the “anchor baby” bullshit and costs to
>> taxpayers is of no concern whatsoever to them, because they only want
>> to see LOWER TAXES and FEWER REGULATIONS, which puts a bigger burden
>> on taxpayers, not them.
>>
>> Right-wing talking heads advocate for corporate interests. You’re
>> supporting corporations when you parrot those guys. They don’t care
>> about how their policies affect taxpayers. All they know is, the less
>> taxes they pay, and the fewer lawsuits they have to deal with from
>> their workers, the more profits they make for shareholders.
>>
>> Back to the original question: where will programming be in 10-15
>> years? It will be faster, easier, more reliable, and won’t involve
>> programmers.
>>
>> Someone will initiate a conversation with Siri (say) and after a while
>> an app will get built. If you need it changed, just tell Siri.
>
>
> I'm not holding my breath. Cars are built by robots. Who builds the
> robots?
> A Program building a program? Who builds the first program? A
> programmer. I don't see this happening in 10 - 15 years.
>
>
>>
>> No programming will be required.
>>
>> -David Schwartz
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--
Keith Smith
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