The entire process is going to be transformed. Can’t relate to it using current benchmarks.
There’s a growing number of apps that are using an interview process to collect data and then use the answers to combine with other info and known patterns or templates to spit out something of interest, like a legal contract, list of instructions to do something, stories, evaluations, reviews, even entire books.
This is going to be something like what “analysts” do today. Only instead of them taking notes, the computer will be doing the interview and at some point it will start displaying a form on a page and part of the process will be manipulating the form yourself. Behind the scenes, the AI will generate the code needed to make the form “come to life” so to speak, and you’ll just keep answering questions and tweaking things.
This interview process is a skill unto itself, and not all programmers can do it.
However, it’s a big part of the overall “programming” process.
The part related to “writing code” will be disappearing, and it will become more driven by an interview process that’s oriented entirely towards what the user wants to accomplish, not code-oriented as most programmers are.
Users couldn’t give a crap how the stuff gets done, only that they can get the stuff “out” that they want for a given bag of inputs.
There are lots of really great chefs in the world who can make amazing meals, but they can’t fill more than a minute or so talking about the chemistry behind it.
The coding part is going to disappear and users will be able to refine their ideas in real-time on a screen using an interview process. That’s where the whole “No-Code” movement is heading.
-David Schwartz
> On Nov 4, 2024, at 4:52 PM, James Mcphee via PLUG-discuss <plug-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org> wrote:
>
> Do you think AI is going to cause a skills gap where you can do jr level tasks with it, but moving from jr to sr is a giant leap because the smooth learning curve is distorted by how easy it is to do basic things?
>
> On Mon, Nov 4, 2024 at 3:06 PM Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss <plug-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org <mailto:plug-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org>> wrote:
> On 2024-11-04 11:30, David Schwartz via PLUG-discuss wrote:
> > Not what anybody wants to hear but …
> >
> > AI is going to transform this thing we call “programming”.
> >
>
> It has already. I use it regularly. It helped me configure my LAMP
> server to use php-fpm. I've played with enough to know it can program
> faster than me and better than me.
>
>
>
> > The “programming” process is going to become more high-level and
> > abstract. The “coding" stuff will become hidden in the background and
> > nobody will care about the language being used.
>
> For now I think one needs senior experience to use AI for programming.
> Maybe 3 50 5 years it might be getting there. I think we are safe for
> possibly 10 more years.
>
> >
> > Descriptions of what’s wanted will be used instead of entering lines
> > and lines of code.
> >
> > I see a process that looks more like an interview, like what analysts
> > do now, where the user is describing what they want to see first at the
> > UI level, then drilling down to specific formulas and actions that
> > apply to each field, as well as what back-end sources and destinations
> > of data exist.
>
> I agree.
>
> >
> > For a while, that will be done by us “programmers”, but as it gets
> > better, it will be done with an increasing amount of input directly
> > from users or “analysts” who do that stuff now.
> >
> > This is going to shift the nature of work we do, but I doubt it’ll
> > change things significantly for several years because most people
> > cannot think through things in a stepwise logical manner.
> >
> > Also, most people can’t look at things from a “big picture
> > perspective”, which means they’re going to get really annoyed at the
> > interview process asking about stuff they think is irrelevant,
> > resulting in overly narrow applications that cannot be easily adapted
> > to deal with broader needs over time. (Yeah, so what’s new about that,
> > right?)
> >
> > I know that learning to code is being seen as some kind of necessary
> > skill today, but they’re a day late and a few dollars short. In a world
> > where people can’t balance their checkbooks or track their spending,
> > learning to code is never going to be more than a hobby. They’ll be
> > turning to ChatGPT.
>
> When I think about the AI programmer I still see testing analysis and
> design and training. I think most of this will eventually be taken over
> by machines.... And I am glad I am old. I figure I will retire in
> another 10 years.
>
> There is so much going on right now that the next 10 years should be
> very interesting.
>
> Keith
>
> >
> > We need a “CodeGPT” thingamabob that people can use to make apps.
> >
> > -David Schwartz
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >> On Nov 4, 2024, at 10:47 AM, Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss
> >> <plug-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org <mailto:plug-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org>> wrote:
> >>
> >> Hi Alexander,
> >>
> >> I'm a PHP developer and my audience on YouTube, I would guess, are
> >> people wanting to learn PHP.
> >>
> >> I use Linux to support my PHP programming.
> >>
> >> I'm wondering if there is some value in not automating so one has to
> >> do these tasks over and over. I'm thinking this can help the learning
> >> curve.
> >>
> >> I know I have learned a lot. I last did this stuff on CentOS 6.x
> >> maybe 5 or 6 years ago. Ubuntu is similar but different.
> >>
> >> Your Thoughts?
> >>
> >> Keith
> >>
> >>
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