Re: Opportunity

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On 2022-08-18 14:09, David Schwartz via PLUG-discuss wrote:
> I’m really not trying to get into a political debate, except that
> the “doom and gloom” stuff seems to keep coming from the same
> sources, in the same way that Arctic cold fronts always come from the
> North. At the end of the day, it’s just another day.
>
> Keith chose the Subject as “Opportunity” and then started the
> discussion assuming “doom and gloom”. Smart investors make money
> whether the market is going up, down, or sideways. I don’t pay
> attention to this nonsense, and the best political advice I have is
> for others to ignore it as well.
>
> For quite a while I watched several news broadcasts daily, and one day
> I was sitting there and had this epiphany: this is like listening to a
> daily update of a horse race that just keeps going on ... day after
> day, week after week, month after month, forever.
>
> You tune in each day and hear this horse is edging out this other
> horse, and you hear interviews about the people riding them, with
> people giving their opinions about how each rider’s background is
> affecting their strategy and justifying their current position in the
> race today. Each day the horses are in slightly different places
> relative to each other, but they’re all moving forward. Sometimes
> one trips and falls, and all hell breaks loose. There are dozens of
> horses and riders in the race, and MILLIONS of people watching and
> opining on what’s going on.
>
> EVERYBODY HAS AN OPINION. So what?
>
> The thing is, from one day to the next, NONE OF THE OPINIONS MATTER.
> What matters is THE RACE EACH OF US IS IN OURSELVES.
>
> Some people choose to see “doom and gloom” while others choose to
> see “everything is looking up”.
>
> I tend to go with this: The sun is going to keep rising every day, and
> life will go on given half a chance. Everything else is just noise.
>
> I don’t claim to have a crystal ball, but I do believe that when a
> small number of companies are responsible for a significant portion of
> financial leverage in the world, the overall economy is going to tend
> to follow in their wake, even if just a little. That’s were we’re
> at today, especially in the tech world.
>
> Beyond that, I believe there’s a huge mega-trend happening in the
> world today, which is tied to climactic changes. You can listen to the
> pundits all you want, but we cannot deny the fact that average
> temperatures are rising, watersheds are drying up, and water is
> becoming scarce. This may be man-made and it may be simply one of
> Mother Nature’s cyclic activities. But it’s not something any ONE
> of us can do much about.
>
> Russia is trying to blow up a nuclear plant in Ukraine. They might as
> well drop a nuclear bomb there. Talk about cutting off their nose to
> spit their face! But that’s what they seem to think is needed to
> “win” — win by blowing up their own feet. Yes, there are truly
> stupid people in the world and we’re watching them destroy
> themsevles day by day in that part of the world. It’s not as if
> Nature is doing enough damage to agricultural production, these guys
> want to ensure one of the most fertile farming regions of the world
> won’t be able to produce ANYTHING for CENTURIES. What kind of idiots
> do that?
>
> One thing is certain: a LOT of people around the world are going to
> start freaking out and throwing money at would-be solutions. THERE
> LIES OPPORTUNITY!
>
> Look at all of the things that burn fossil fuels; that run
> inefficiently and produce more heat than needed; that are expensive to
> break-down and recycle; that waste water, energy, and can’t be
> re-used — all of these things are going to be looked at with
> increasing scrutiny by others even as they’re watching the bigger
> horse races, and they are going to be making buying decisions based on
> this stuff.
>
> Yes, this list is about technology. And technology presents a HUGE
> OPPORTUNITY to fill the needs of people who are going to be looking to
> down-size, right-size, and make their lives more EFFICIENT. A lot of
> them are going to be us Baby Boomers who are becoming empty-nesters
> and want to simplify our lives. What sorts of OPPORTUNITIES DO WE
> HAVE?
>
> They’re not all technical.
>
> For example, next February the Super Bowl is going to be here in
> Phoenix again. Last time it was here, I noticed something: you could
> not get a room or a car for a 75 mile radius from early January to
> late February. Car rental folks pulled in cars from Tucson, San Diego,
> LA, Las Vegas, and Alberqueue, and there was STILL A SHORTAGE!
>
> Low supply combined with high demand caused prices to SKYROCKET.
>
> These people aren’t looking for Linux servers! They want a place to
> sleep and a car to get around in! If you have a house and you can move
> out for a few weeks, you might be able to rent your house and car out
> for $2000-$4000 per week! Now THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY!
>
> Or just buy some nice used cars, put them up on GetAround, and offer
> to park them at AirBNB places people will be renting next winter.
> Offer them $100 a week and charge their tenants $500 a week. If that
> seems like a lot, consider that renting cars at the airport will be
> starting at $150 PER DAY for most of Jan-Mar!
>
> I suggest using GetAround because those guys have done something with
> TECHNOLOGY that gives them a leg up on their competition: they have a
> dongle that plugs into the data plug inside the car and lets customers
> access the vehicles via an app on their phone. Someone can park the
> car wherever, put the keys in the glove box, exit the vehicle, lock it
> up and walk away. It’s ready for the next renter. That is, you
> don’t need someone there to collect and hand-off the keys when
> renters come and go.
>
> Forget the “doom and gloom” nonsense. OPPORTUNITY lies in
> observing TRENDS and capitalizing on them. Phoenix and Arizona are
> going to see a surge of nearly 500k tourists this coming winter due to
> the Super Bowl, and they have already set aside a LOT OF $$$ to spend
> while they’re here. They are going to spend those $$$ regardless of
> what the nightly horse-race reports might be saying at that time. The
> daily horse-race reports are irrelevant! If you’re watching them,
> then STOP! Watch the larger trends.
>
> Intel is the largest semiconductor company in the world. Apple is no
> longer using Intel’s chips. That leaves a big hole to fill in
> Intel’s sales. They’ve known about it for a while now, and
> they’ve been busy plugging that hole. At the same time, there’s a
> world-wide “chip shortage”. Seems like a PERFECT OPPROTUNITY FOR
> INTEL, right?
>
> The new legislation that was just passed contains a bunch of
> “incentives” for consumers in the form of tax credits for buying
> EVs. But more than that, it’s a cosmic-sized CROW-BAR being held
> over the heads of major corporations who have spent the past 30 years
> doing all they can to CUT MANUFACTURING COSTS by MOVING OFF-SHORE.
> These tax credits will ONLY be available to companies who MOVE THEIR
> PRODUCTION BACK ON-SHORE!
>
> A lot of them are going to scream and holler like stuck pigs and try
> everything they can to get politicians to make their lives easier.
>
> And I guarantee there are plenty of startups who are going to JUMP AT
> THE OPPORTUNITIES being created by this new legislation to sneak into
> the holes being created by these OLD-SCHOOL LAZY-ASS COMPANIES who
> don’t want to change.
>
> Congress has thrown down a challenge to the entire TECH community:
> INNOVATE OR DIE!
>
> If you’re a company that has bet your future on Li-Ion battery
> technology, then this certainly looks like DOOM-AND-GLOOM.
>
> If you’re a kid about to attend college and are wondering what to
> get into: consider BATTERY CHEMISTRY. This will be a GREAT choice for
> a solid 20-year career path today. And it will be there regardless of
> what politicians end up doing, because the big fat lazy companies with
> all the money have been milking Li-Ion technology and invested very
> little in INNOVATION. That’s the way of the world. And it creates
> HUGE OPPORTUNITIES in its wake.
>
> I have no idea what Linux has to do with any of this, but the subject
> was “OPPORTUNITY”. Seize it.
>

David,

You provide a bunch to think about.

What does this have to do with Linux? We are on a Linux list and I
would guess most are not going to retool.

I'm 66 and do not think I will retool, so I am looking at some simple
things that might make my life better while we enter a period of chaos.
I am a PHP programmer and I know less about Linux than I would like to.
For me the opportunities have to be in the realm of LAMP/LEMP.

PHP is so ingrained that it will be around for decades. Eventually it
will go the way of COBOL... AND COBOL is still around. I think a person
could make a career being a COBOL developer.

So I think the question is what are the opportunities for the Linux
admins and the associated technologies?





> -David Schwartz
>
>> On Aug 18, 2022, at 8:58 AM, techlists@phpcoderusa.com wrote:
>>
>> David,
>>
>> I have always enjoyed your thoughts, even though we do not agree
>> when it comes to political issues. And I think your a smart guy.
>>
>> On 2022-08-17 03:25, David Schwartz via PLUG-discuss wrote:
>>
>> I'll pass on this one because it could get politically charged very
>> quickly and my intention were to try to understand what is coming.
>>
>> I posted to this list hoping for thoughts from technical people.
>>
>>> I don’t know what you’re referring to exactly about the
>>> economy
>>> crashing, other than the typical doom-and-gloom nonsense that the
>>> right-wing propaganda machinery floods the airwaves with whenever
>>> Democrats are in charge of things. The truth is, things are always
>>> shifting, slowly but surely.
>>
>> I hope it is all doom-and-gloom. I'm not up for an economic crash.
>> You and I have lived though some interesting times.
>>
>> - Oil embargo, which killed the musical car era.
>> - 70's and 80's which kept my wages 20% behind the real cost of
>> living.
>> - 30 years of perpetual wars....
>> - The creation of the Internet and all that has come with it.
>>
>> I do not think what is currently taking place is "right-wing
>> propaganda".
>>
>> I am hearing and reading:
>>
>> - Ukraine and Russia produce 70% of the worlds wheat which is not
>> making it to the market this year.
>> - Ukraine and Russia produce 70% of the worlds commercial fertilizer
>> which is not making it to the market this year.
>> - We are experiencing a severe drought world wide.
>> - Some are saying there will be famine and food shortages. I'm
>> seeing vacant shelves at the grocery stores.
>> - The dollar is losing it's place as the world's reserve currency.
>> That means dollars going to come home causing even more inflation.
>> - Some are saying it could be as bad as the Great Depression. And I
>> truly hope this is "right-wing propaganda".
>> - Some are saying we will see double digit inflation for 10 years.
>> How do I plan my wife's retirement with that? I'll work till I
>> die... I did the math. If I save $1000 today, in 10 years it will
>> have $350 of buying power.
>>
>> I was hoping to spend my old age working on my old muscle car and
>> old RV. I do not own either. Oh, and throw in some watching the
>> grass grow.
>>
>> I do not want this to turn political. I am in search of wisdom.
>>
>> Here are my thoughts.
>>
>> 1) Transition away from Windows and MAC. Buy some old hardware,
>> while it is cheep. In fact 6 months from now lots of things might
>> be cheep - new and old. I read Walmart is laying off 300 executives
>> dues to the slow in the economy and having an over stocked
>> situation. I would buy as much RAM as you might need for your new
>> and old hardware and replace spinners with SSD drives.
>>
>> 2) I know this is a Linux list so I assume most know Linux better
>> that most others. I am a programmer. A PHP developer. I
>> understand most developers do not know Linux. I recommend learning
>> how to configure and maintain a LAMP server for testing and
>> development. The P stands for PHP.
>>
>> 3) I would recommend that those who do not have the skills to
>> maintain a Linux desktop should burn some midnight oil and learn the
>> basics. I had to move to Windows 6 years ago because of a business
>> need. Windows 10 has 3 more years before it's end of life. By that
>> time I will be back on Linux for good.
>>
>> 4) Create a blog and journal your learning and experiences.
>>
>> 5) If you are looking for a job, find the hiring managers and ask
>> them to mentor you so you can find the door into what you want to
>> do.
>>
>> 6) I think a lot of businesses will fail. AND out of the ashes new
>> businesses will form. These new businesses will need to use
>> technology to their benefit. What technologies will they need?
>>
>> 7) Linux and web programming is turning into, and may have already
>> turned into a cottage industry. For hosting there only needs to be
>> one admin local to the facility. All others can work remote.
>>
>> 8) Covid caused a shift away from the office to the spare bedroom.
>> In an effort to save money I think most companies will have a hybrid
>> model. Employees will need to make it into the office periodically
>> while working from home for the majority of the time. The amount of
>> office space necessary to run a business will shrink. Office space
>> should be cheep for the foreseeable future.
>>
>> 9) We have become a mail order economy. I only buy groceries in
>> person and that will change within the next few month. I used to
>> buy everything retail. Not anymore. And that saves me time and
>> gas. I tip so the tip is probably what I would spend on gas...
>> however it does spare my car wear and tear.
>>
>> Those are my thoughts. I would like to hear from others.
>>
>>> As for technology, I’d make this simple observation:
>>> At some point, the world leader in CPU chips — Intel — was
>>> following along the same path they had been taking for years and
>>> was
>>> working on a 5 GHz CPU when they realized that as they kept trying
>>> to
>>> speed-up CPUs, the amount of effort needed to extract the heat
>>> from
>>> the chips would make the hardware far too expensive and cumbersome
>>> to
>>> remain viable. So they decided that multiple CPUs on the chip
>>> where
>>> the CPU speed was around 2-3 GHz would be better in the long-run.
>>> I’m guessing that the folks at a world leader in computer
>>> engineering — Apple Computer — also figured this out. Intel
>>> sells
>>> chips; Apple sells computer systems. Dell buys Intel chips and
>>> integrates video cards from another vendor that use Intel’s
>>> GPUs.
>>> Apple doesn’t really care who makes what; they just want to
>>> maximize
>>> their profits.
>>> Coincidentally, video cards have been hard to come by because the
>>> GPUs
>>> have been getting hijacked for use by crytocurrency miners. A
>>> large
>>> portion of these have Intel GPUs on them.
>>> Apple decided it might make more sense to simply put a bunch of
>>> CPUs
>>> and GPUs on one substrate and then tune their software to run on
>>> this
>>> sort of architecture, alleviating the dependency on separate CPU
>>> and
>>> GPU chips and cards. There’s a side-effect in that nobody is
>>> going
>>> to be hijacking their GPUs for other purposes.
>>> Intel apparently didn’t want to lose the revenues they’ve been
>>> earning from their GPU chip sales to crypto miners and, well,
>>> Apple is
>>> no longer using either Intel’s CPUs or GPUs.
>>> So while some say the economy is “crashing”, the 10 largest
>>> corporations in the world are all reporting record profits and
>>> growth.
>>> The stuff politicians are doing to continue long-term policies
>>> that
>>> enable corporations to siphon off more and more money from
>>> consumers
>>> is appalling, and may well lead to a lot more discomfort and pain
>>> for
>>> consumers, but certainly not from corporate shareholders and
>>> execs. If
>>> you want to profit from that shift, then buy stocks in these large
>>> and
>>> growing companies. Warren Buffet has large holdings in them, as
>>> well
>>> as Apple. He also owns a large utility company in Nevada.
>>> Speaking of utility companies, one thing that is surely going to
>>> help
>>> “crash” the economy (for consumers) over the coming decade is
>>> the
>>> increasing growth of EVs and their need to get their fuel from the
>>> power grid. The same power grid that’s going to be used to power
>>> computers and crypto miners. Some with politically-motivated
>>> arguments
>>> might see it as convenient that states like Arizona have passed
>>> laws
>>> that give utility companies the power to punish consumers who want
>>> to
>>> install their own renewable energy sources and batteries to become
>>> independent of the power grid. Yes, we’re talking about those
>>> folks
>>> who’d like to unhook from the inevitable increases we’re going
>>> to
>>> see in the cost of electricity, especially since the cost of fuel
>>> to
>>> power generators is also skyrocketing — and the profits from
>>> those
>>> price increases is nearly all flowing into the bank accounts of
>>> the
>>> monarchy of Saudi Arabia (with the help of elected officials in
>>> Congress, both past and present, members of both political
>>> parties).
>>
>> I have been pondering the grid issue. Was not long ago the
>> electricity vendors where complaining about the load that cellular
>> phones and other devices where putting on the grid.
>>
>>> The tea leaves are pretty clear to many readers: there’s a big
>>> shift
>>> towards more and more things in our life that require electricity
>>> to
>>> run, and it’s inevitable that the cost of said power is going to
>>> go
>>> up. But the price of gas is also going up, which is contributing
>>> to
>>> the increase in power costs. Buying a bunch of old computers that
>>> consume 3x the power of the newest computers does not seem like a
>>> smart way to avoid increases in the cost of electricity.
>>
>> Are you saying my 8 year old Dell i5 is using too much power and I
>> should replace it?
>>
>> Not sure how to evaluate that. My i5 is old and has 4 cores, 16GB
>> of RAM, and a 1TB SSD. It is paid for so I wonder if spending $500
>> or more, to replace it is really worth the savings in electricity.
>> Maybe I would be better served by adding 1k or 2k of solar to the
>> mix.
>>
>> You seem to be in favor of dumping old iron in favor of more
>> efficient hardware. I'm thinking the opposite. I'm in favor of
>> adding RAM (if needed) and an SSD drive to old stuff and use Linux
>> ... kind of a counter culture thing... Off grid solar has always
>> appealed to me because it "feels" counter culture. Taking control
>> of ones life.
>>
>> Remember the good old days about 20 years ago? Linux was counter
>> culture. I first learning of Linux in 1998 and I ran out and bought
>> a box set. I was hooked because it was not main stream, it was
>> counter culture. I'm thinking we need to get some of that back.
>>
>>> Make your home more thermally efficient so you don’t need to run
>>> your A/C as much. Replace electronic equipment with newer
>>> lower-power
>>> stuff. Reduce your overall carbon footprint by 10%. Grow your own
>>> fruits and veggies. Set up a wind turbine or solar panels to
>>> charge
>>> batteries that power your electronic equipment at home, but do not
>>> connect them to the grid. Buy an inexpensive EV to get around
>>> town,
>>> because in the long-run it’ll be far cheaper than a gas-powered
>>> vehicle. (I recommend a Bolt or a Leaf as they’re the cheapest
>>> EVs
>>> on the market today and will remain so for 2-3 years due to
>>> factors
>>> like the global chip shortage. I got a 2019 Leaf SL Plus, and I
>>> *LOVE*
>>> it! It only costs me 4¢/mile in electricity to drive.)
>>
>> Your car sounds nice. I home office and have for a long, long time.
>> With online shopping and delivery I might drive 50 - 200 miles a
>> month. My goal is to get down to 50 miles per month every month. I
>> think I can.
>>
>> I own a 2009 Nissan Xterra. It gets 16 - 20 MPG. Not very good. I
>> do not recall the last time I purchased gas. I fill up at 3/4 of a
>> tank. I think I buy a 1/4 tank of gas every 6 - 8 weeks.
>>
>> I hear some in D.C. say I should buy an EV. Ironically my Nissan
>> might outlive me. Pretty sure it will so why replace?
>>
>>> While you’re at it, figure out how to generate $100-$200 per day
>>> online to supplement your income.
>>
>> Good advice. That was what I was hoping to hear. Any thoughts on
>> how?
>>
>> $100-$200 a day or $3000 - $6000 per month might replace some
>> people's day job.
>>
>> I've been following Income School. I can tell you the Internet is
>> very competitive. Some are able to make affiliate marketing work
>> for them. To do so one needs to be able to write and to write
>> articles for what people are searching for, and that are competitive
>> for that topic.
>>
>> I do think we are at a crossroads where we will see more people work
>> remote and freelance/contract work will start to be the norm.
>>
>> My suggestion is lean how to create an LLC, create a blog, learn
>> your niche and how to get traffic, especially targeted traffic that
>> creates business leads. Or one can scour the job sites and look for
>> remote in your area of expertise.
>>
>> I think the real opportunities moving forward will be in the area of
>> freelancing.
>>
>> I think we are about to go through another change in how we work.
>> Covid got us out of the office and now I think a lot of jobs are
>> going to be short term and will be 1099 contract.
>>
>> There are a few things to learn about to survive as a 1099
>> contractor. It is not like working W2. You will need to pay for
>> your own benefits, time off, training, equipment, and workspace.
>> You will need to understand what you need to live on, what you are
>> worth, and that not all of your time is income producing. For
>> short-term projects, I figure 1/2 of my time is taken up by non
>> income producing activates.
>>
>> I am interested in hearing from the list.
>>
>> -David Schwartz
>> On Aug 15, 2022, at 9:31 AM, Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss
>> <plug-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org> wrote:
>> Hi,
>> About 24 years ago I worked for a guy who used to say "There is
>> opportunity in chaos.".
>> Given the chip shortage and other things taking place in the global
>> space, present and future, I am wondering what do you see as
>> opportunity in this present/coming chaos?
>> FWIW I am an old guy who has started to realize that being forward
>> thinking is VERY important.
>> To keep things relevant I see that hardware is finally powerful
>> enough that 10 year old hardware can run Linux rather well. If the
>> economy really is going to crash it might be worth acquiring some
>> old iron, SSD drives, and RAM for future projects.
>> Your thoughts?
>> Thanks!!
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> https://u2206659.ct.sendgrid.net/ls/click?upn=SJEG7TF39YLaAIMD0HhsfC6E-2FcJXOs2D1VhGcvn2YkObFLMBOC3gmante55BOqf2F-2ByuZjZxeWAcK3DSlXP4Xtp4dQImX1G2Oq-2BQoN6woQ4-3DQtyt_o-2BjQxMsWfboH-2B-2BcY2qb3IYCoqvthnvff9ftZz0pNEJ2tF1jbVlVBtrlaPYq4av3GtXZzzvIc086yvugFSA3saxxuCdLmnOKWzgIZv-2By6XLuPkXjXlATMDuYagr0KW5uEAF-2BhsJPbet5Opdm57jmQEciQYDQoP19h3va4udhnoD6gOMxL7cFCqTDtQrWmg48Z8dAtfC6BIMEKpRcq2pw7lZQsjZgw9VP1fn1jelYejkY-3D
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