just a little grumble

Hi Matt,

I've been saying the same thing. If the government could control
the economy we would all be over taxed and very rich.

I've been threatening to go sell cars for years. Maybe I
will........

However we are rich by comparison.

Keith


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Message: 10
Date: Tue, 4 Dec 2001 17:32:32 -0800 (PST)
From: Matt Alexander <m@netpro.to>
To: <plug-discuss@lists.PLUG.phoenix.az.us>
Subject: Re: just a little grumble
Reply-To: plug-discuss@lists.PLUG.phoenix.az.us

My impression is that the economy grew extremely fast due almost
entirely
to the computer hardware/software industry. Obviously, many
non-tech
companies also benefit from the tech industry doing well since
there's a
lot of services and goods needed to support the growth of the
tech
industry. There were several factors that I see that led to such
a huge
expansion of tech jobs and high salaries, and all of these
factors
coincided at about the same time.

Y2K: There was a lot of money spent upgrading hardware and
software.
There was also a lot of money spent on consultants and other
support
companies to facilitate the upgrade. Many systems were upgraded
even
though they were already Y2K compliant, just to bring everything
up to the
same performance level.

The Internet: Every commercial a couple years back had a URL
splashed on
the screen. Nearly everyone thought that the Internet was going
to be
this amazing thing that revolutionized the world. Everyone
thought they
could make a ton of money by simply selling their product over
the web.
Everyone that didn't already have a computer thought that they
needed to
get a computer so they too could do whatever it was that everyone
else was
doing on the Internet. So what does Joe User do with his fancy
computer
and Internet access? He reads and writes email. Maybe if he's
really
advanced then he checks movie times or the latest sport scores on
the Web.
Woopteedoo. Before you try to flame me on this point, realize
that you
are not "Joe User." You're on a Linux mailing list and that puts
you far,
far outside the average.
Probably the most useful feature of the web to me is that I can
easily
make plane reservations (not that I can afford to travel anymore
like I
did during the dotcom days, but that's beside the point). So
there have
been some nice benefits, but hardly anything earth-shattering.

Hardware performance: Several years ago you could go into a
computer
store, take a computer home and actually notice some difference
in the
performance compared your old system. So let's say Joe User buys
the
latest and greatest Pentium 933 THz computer. Does he notice any
big
difference in how his apps run from his old 350MHz system? Nope.
Not
unless he plays a lot of games. So for almost every software
category
except games, the hardware has vastly exceeded the demands of the
software. Computer hardware is now become a commodity and the
profit
margins are next to nothing. The server market is somewhat
different, but
it's quickly being marginalized as well as the performance from
relatively
cheap Intel chips continues to increase and push the more
expensive
players, such as Sun, into an ultra high-end niche market.

There are a lot of other minor contributors as well, such as
money being
invested in companies with no good business plan. There was also
an
extreme waste of money during the dotcom days of a year or two
ago. I
worked for two companies that would spend exorbitant amounts of
money
on all sorts of unnecessary purchases, all because they thought
that their
pot of gold would never run out.

I'm going to really exaggerate and overgeneralize things here and
say that
no one buys software anymore (except games). Have you been to an
Office
Depot lately to see the software choices? Almost nothing of
interest. MS
Office, while a fine product, is horrendously expensive if you
didn't
already get it for free with your computer (or swiped a copy from
work).
So the software industry is pretty much dead, in my opinion.
Microsoft will probably be one of a handful of software companies
still
standing in the next several years. Not because they make good
software,
but because they're big enough and wealthy enough to survive
longer than
the rest. But they too will have to soon make dramatic cuts in
their
workforce to survive. They're losing money on X-box and
customers aren't
interested in upgrading their MS software (and probably couldn't
afford it
anyway) anymore. Microsoft is sort of a macro-example of what
we're going
through. They too were in the right place at the right time and
made
several business choices that brought them to this point. But
they can't
keep up the same levels of financial growth any longer. And
there will
never be another Microsoft because the factors that brought them
where
they are now won't happen again as far as I can tell.

So where'd all those computer jobs go? They were never really
there.
It's not the fault of our government or anyone else for running
the
economy into the ground. We're in a recession. And we'll
continue to be
in a recession until things return to the levels they were before
Y2K, The
Internet, and Hardware blew things way out of proportion. It was
a bubble
of extreme wealth where a lot of things happened together at the
right
time, but it's over now.

In any case, I wish everyone that's been laid-off (including
myself) the
best of luck finding a new job. You might seriously look at
going back to
school to try your hand at a different profession. Right now
there are
too many people looking for tech jobs and there will most likely
never be
enough jobs to satisfy them all.
~M



On Tue, 4 Dec 2001, Nancy Sollars wrote:

> Hi Guys,
>
> Well looks like this down turn in economy has bitten once more
... Ive just had a nice chat with my wife and it seems the only
choice ive got is to go and get a job at a fast food restuarant
..
>
>
> not being funny but i could have dont this back in Bristol..
Since the economy in the US at the moment sucks so bad im
seriously considering going back to the UK, I think someone up
top should get a reality check and start reading their book on
how to run a country cause im sure im not the only one being
driven to such extremes.
>
> With all my experiance and stuff in IT there is no way in hell
im going to flip burgers it would make no sense of the money and
effort spent on training and courses by myself back in the UK.
>
> How do you all feel about the current situation?
>
> Nige
>

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