I got a bad feeling about this Chewie.

[Kurt Granroth]

Alan Dayley wrote:
> This deal will not save Novell as the FS/OSS community continues to
> marginalize them despite all the "benefits."  Novell needs more cash to
> stay alive, making the ripe for a by-out.

I keep hearing this how "Novell is doomed" and how "nobody will buy them
now" and the like... yet the facts seem to indicate quite the opposite.

http://www.linux-mag.com/id/2977/

The short version is that Novell Linux sales are UP since the
announcement.  Things seems like that anecdotally, too.  There have been
a decent number of announcements lately about this and that company or
this and that country switching to Linux and it *feels* like most or all
of them are using SLE.

I won't deny that the patent move pissed off a huge amount of FS/OSS
fans, but it's somewhat looking like those pissed off people aren't the
ones actually making the business decisions.

I think, too, that a lot of Linux people are too pragmatic.  They see
openSUSE as the best Linux distro out there now (Ubuntu is gaining
rapidly but they are still a year or two away, IMO) and aren't going to
switch based on the potential of some nebulous future problems.

> Extend phase:
> ------------
> Continue the "inter-operablility" efforts began by Novell, blending what
> is left of SUSE Linux with MS Windows stuff to "benefit the customer" and
> "make things easier" and "create consistency" and blah, blah.  Other Linux
> distros will not be able to use these extensions because the license will
> not be Free or Open, though it may be called "Open."

... Which isn't to say that this isn't going to happen.  It sounds
perfectly like a MS tactic and I can see Novell going along if they
think it'll get them paying customers.

> Extinguish phase:
> ----------------
> New FUD --> MS Linux is the "real" Linux because they have the Unix code
> and it works with all the new interoperability standards.  Marginalize any
> other Linux because it cannot work right with "real Linux"

FUD works too ways and, honestly, I think it's mostly going the "wrong"
direction this time.  Everything you hear about the patent deal concerns
conspiracy theories that *could* happen or *might* happen.  It's sowing
classic Fear Uncertainty and Doubt without anything to back it up.

Mind you, after all that, I'll admit to being uncomfortable with the
deal.  I can't tell you how glad I am that SUSE is now fully open
sourced as openSUSE.  So if I'm wrong and Novell does go south, SUSE
will live on!

Kurt