flame-bait contra Re: anti dot-net spew

[Victor Odhner]

Regarding monopoly in the chip manufacturing business,
Trent Shipley wrote:
> What does a bargain-basement fab that produces
> competitive 64-bit CPUs cost anyway?

There is no bargain basement in this field.  First,
you have to build a large facility with all sorts
of special infrastructure -- white rooms, etc. --
and spend literally years gearing up.  Equipment
expense is out the window, and a lot of the machinery
you have to design and build yourself. When I left
this field in 1993, the time to market with facility
and team already in place was five years.  Nowadays
you can't afford five years.

Then you need a killer design, so your team needs to
be really hot and up to date.  You may have had a team
last year, but if you've let it melt away it will take
you yet another couple of years to build it back up.

And don't forget the supporting costs, including such
things as marketing (you die quickly without it),
patent lawyers (a major issue nowadays), and so on.

So to start out, you basically need a heck of a lot
of funding.  What are you selling?  "Yet another"
64-bit CPU?  Why will buyers want it?  Because it's
a better design, or because it's cheaper.  You can
see the challenges in either of these.

I'm sure there WILL be upstarts in the business, but
their chance of survival is pretty slim.

Vic


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