I'm not saying it won't happen eventually.  Heck, we have factories that build factories.  But it took us a while to get there.

Also, I don't think the industrial model works for us.  The product coming out of, say, a papermill is pretty static.  When I was a kid, papermachine #3 had 3500 people manning it.  Paper machine #5 came out when I was in middle school and that required a couple hundred.  #6 that came around after I hit college needs half a dozen.  That kind of thing is possible and we see if in the employment numbers.  But the output of programming is constantly changing.  It will take a while to get a system capable of handling those kinds of changes.

On Thu, Sep 14, 2017 at 12:17 PM, Matt Graham <mhgraham@crow202.org> wrote:
On 2017-09-14 11:20, James Mcphee wrote:
On Thu, Sep 14, 2017 at 9:23 AM, <techlists@phpcoderusa.com> wrote:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/learning-how-code-still-worth-rajat-bhageria
which predicts that computers will be self coding and coding skills will
be obsolete.

I've read other such articles in the recent past.  I'm also reading about
robots replacing jobs....
Ahh, I remember this argument when COBOL came out.  The excitement
never changes.

The fun thing about some of this machine learning stuff is that you can play with it and see exactly what it's capable of.  https://github.com/karpathy/char-rnn , for example.  (Warning:  Requires stuff that is probably not in your package manager, installation may be a bit of a PITA.)  As seen in http://crow202.org/misc/char-rnn.html and http://lewisandquark.tumblr.com/ , this particular neural network is good for comedy, but terrible at being coherent.  Even with a relatively simple problem ("name a paint color"), you wind up with http://lewisandquark.tumblr.com/post/160776374467/new-paint-colors-invented-by-neural-network .  "Stanky Bean".  Sure, let's go with that.

As Public Enemy said many years ago, don't believe the hype.  Not yet, anyway.

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