Great words by JD! 

When I first started estimating work, I found I was almost always woefully short, so I started doubling my estimates.  Still short, so I started multiplying by 4, then by 8 (yes, I was often off by a factor of 8).  Still often short, so I changed to estimating the number of lines of code I’d write and using that as the number of  hours I’d spend.  Rarely was I short after that.  This DOES, however, require that you know enough about the project to be able to estimate the number of lines of code…

One other comment – I once took a fixed-bid contract.  I quit keeping track of my hours once I was making under $1/hour… 

I was off by at LEAST a factor of 20, probably more (this was VERY early in my contracting life, and I was only charging about $25/hour back 30 or so years ago).  So estimating is hard, and getting the number within a factor of 2 is probably impossible without a VERY good specification.

From: plug-discuss-bounces@lists.phxlinux.org [mailto:plug-discuss-bounces@lists.phxlinux.org] On Behalf Of JD Austin
Sent: Monday, March 24, 2014 7:05 AM
To: Main PLUG discussion list
Subject: Re: looking for some project advice for a startup

I'll 3rd on documentation... even if you do it yourself.  

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