I wanted to send this to the list, because I think you make some excellent points here. Also just for the record, I'm not necessarily saying I think do web apps for smart phones is better. I'm merely providing POV from someone working in the tech start-up space that that's what the industry is currently leaning towards. I actually prefer native apps myself. On Mon, Aug 4, 2014 at 7:51 AM, wrote: > On 2014-08-03 19:14, Paul Mooring wrote: > >> This is a probably a longer and more involved conversation than you >> think. There's a few primary factors in supply and demand for app >> developers: >> >> 1. Native vs HTML >> >> There's a huge difference in the available supply of developers and >> companies currently equipped to make an html5 site that plays nice >> with both ios and android. I think we're likely to see a >> proliferation of tools like phonegap (http://phonegap.com/ [6]) and a >> >> slow down of native apps as html apps eat that market share. When >> you consider currently ios requires objective-C and android Java, you >> have 2 languages with different tool chains and a more involved >> development and release process competing against a very well >> understood and super fast html/javascript ecosystem. In my opinion >> html/js will eat the mobile dev community as quickly and dominantly as >> it did for native Windows/OSX applications. >> >> > This is akin to the argument for browser based applications 10 - 15 years > ago. You build an app that runs in a browser and there is no deployment - > just point your browser to the website. > > Building browser based apps that rival desktop apps is not easy. It is > easier now that we have jQuery et al, however still not as easy as building > desktop apps with Visual Basic (VB). It could take 10 - 20 times longer to > build a really trick jQuery web app that rivals a VB app. Unless of course > you build widgets that can be reused, then you spend a bunch of time the > first go around and reuse those widgets. Still a lot of time building > those widgets. > > I have not built any Android apps, however I suspect it might be faster to > build them than HTML/(MySql/MariaDB)/CSS/JavaScript (jQuery). The down > side is the different platforms. Which one do you go with and what is the > market implications of doing so. > > Of course web apps require a server or at lease some cheap virtual hosting > depending on the needs of the app. > > > 2. Expanding platforms >> >> Currently ios and android own the market, but with microsoft, >> mozilla, ubuntu, etc. all getting into the mobile os game it's >> conceivable that the overall market could keep growing without making >> android/java skills a "must have". >> >> > This is down right ugly. > > > 3. Better native app tooling >> >> Writing full featured web applications 10 years ago was really >> hard. Rails, Django, Laravel, etc. along with REST APIs and json >> revolutionized how we build web services making it a whole lot >> easier. Then much more recently jquery followed by a million >> javascript frameworks did the same for front ends. If native android >> development keeps growing similar tooling is sure to be built to >> drastically reduce the entrance barrier. >> > > It's still very time consuming and requires skills that come with a > learning curve. > > We are still stuck in the 80's with C versus the 90's with Visual Basic. > You build your own widgets and development time is through the roof. > > Building mobile web apps takes a considerable amount of skill and arguably > two distinct or possibly three distinct skill sets - 1) Programmers, 2) > Designers, and 3) JavaScript / jQuery developers. I assume building an > Android app requires one skill set - Android programming skills - a much > smaller set of skills. > > > >> Overall I think it will become easier/cheaper/faster to build mobile >> apps, but I sort of doubt that will manifest itself in the form of >> most developers learning and rallying around Java and the Android API. >> > > Thank you for your thoughts. In a nutshell I think what you are saying is > there is high demand presently, the market will fragment, the demand will > level out, and we should consider web apps first. > > The thing we have not talk about is marketing. I think this is what is > motivating Joe. If one builds browser base application and you want to > market it how do you do so? SEO is the main way. As Google continues to > refine their algorithm trying to get a website to rank is getting more > difficult. The alternative is to spend lots of money on advertising. Both > approaches require deep pockets. > > If Joe releases his Android app it might get some traction. And it might > be easier to market in the traditional way. The down side is only part of > the market can run the app. > > My motivation for asking the question was purely wanting to know if the > high demand for Android developers will last. No one can know for sure. > While you say the market will splinter, I think Android will be a strong > contender. I do not see M$ as a real market player. They have a lot of > money and can put a dent in the market, however they seem to miss the boat > in so many ways. Linux is such a better operating system and demands so > much less resources to run efficiently. Now Apple is a big dog!! And they > seem to do a lot of things right. Isn't OSX based on FreeBSD? Doesn't that > make them cousins with Linux/Android? Could we see the merging of tools in > this area? > > Thank you for your thoughts!! > > > >> On Sun, Aug 3, 2014 at 4:35 PM, wrote: >> >> Hi Paul, >>> >>> One would think that Andriod programming is going to be with us for >>> year... decade at least. However that begs the question, what do >>> you (or anyone else) think the long term demand will be? >>> Increasing or decreasing? >>> >>> Is there any barriers to entry like a nasty learning curve? >>> Specialized hardware? ETC... >>> >>> I think I looked at the SDK about a year ago and as I recall it >>> looked to be Java based and then I think I was told of a C++ SDK. >>> IIRC - I think it was something that looked to take a little >>> effort to learn but not too bad. >>> >>> I think i recall something about using JavaScript.....? >>> >>> Thanks! >>> Keith >>> >>> On 2014-08-03 16:09, Paul Mooring wrote: >>> >>> Not to discourage you from trying to make this happen, but a bit of >>> perspective might help. Currently android/java developers are in >>> great demand, where I live the average salary is around $110,000/yr >>> or >>> roughly $2100/week. Having done a bit of contract/outsourcing >>> work >>> myself, I can tell you the experienced contractors/developers >>> intended >>> to lose as much as a weeks time on any project just trying to >>> understand what needs to happen and working with the stake holders >>> to >>> make changes along the lines of "one more simple thing". The take >>> away is there's going to be a minimum price/complexity to justify >>> taking on a project for a skilled/competent developer and if your >>> app >>> doesn't meet that benchmark you're going to have hard time >>> finding a >>> U.S. based competent developer interested in it. >>> >>> This doesn't mean it's a bad idea or you shouldn't do it, just keep >>> in >>> mind that while you may be really passionate about your idea to >>> developers it's one of many offers to work on a contract for an >>> individual offering below market rates. That's a great fit >>> for >>> contractors in India, students or a dev trying to expand her skill >>> set >>> (web dev still learning mobile apps, etc.) but not so appealing to >>> established professionals. >>> >>> On Sun, Aug 3, 2014 at 10:04 AM, wrote: >>> >>> Wanted: Android App Developer $??? Reward ... >>> >>> How can I find a skilled/competent/reasonably priced Android App >>> Developer ... preferrably Arizona local or at least in the U.S.? >>> >>> I've tried elance.com [1] [1] and odesk.com [2] [2] and several >>> >>> similar >>> >>> sites, without >>> success. Mostly get proposals from India and Pakistan, etc. >>> >>> I'm willing to pay up to $1,000 (perhaps more) to get the results >>> we need >>> for an app to read, scroll, flip pages, and search within a book. >>> Should >>> be relatively simple and straight-forward. Need to be able to add >>> to the >>> content and submit updates to the Google playstore myself. >>> >>> See my first-attempt (which does not yet work as well as we need it >>> to) >>> here: >>> >>> >>> https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com. >> CompareBibleVersionsPackage >> >>> [3] >>> [3] >>> >>> Please respond either here or off-line to joe(at)actionline.com [4] >>> [4] >>> >>> --------------------------------------------------- >>> PLUG-discuss mailing list - PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org >>> To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: >>> http://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss [5] [5] >>> >>> >>> -- >>> >>> Paul Mooring >>> Operations Engineer >>> Chef >>> >>> Links: >>> ------ >>> [1] http://elance.com [1] >>> [2] http://odesk.com [2] >>> [3] >>> >>> https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com. >> CompareBibleVersionsPackage >> >>> [3] >>> [4] http://actionline.com [4] >>> [5] http://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss [5] >>> >>> >>> --------------------------------------------------- >>> PLUG-discuss mailing list - PLUG-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org >>> To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings: >>> http://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss [5] >>> >> >> -- >> >> Paul Mooring >> Operations Engineer >> Chef >> >> Links: >> ------ >> [1] http://elance.com >> [2] http://odesk.com >> [3] >> https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com. >> CompareBibleVersionsPackage >> [4] http://actionline.com >> [5] http://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss >> [6] http://phonegap.com/ >> > -- Paul Mooring Operations Engineer Chef