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<p>Read two articles this week that claimed AI will reduce human
work to 3.5 or 4 days per week. Cheer!!! Wait - two things are
going to happen:</p>
<p>1. 20-25% layoff and those that remain pick up the jobs of the
fired.</p>
<p>2. Everyone goes to 28-32 hours per week and guess what you'll
get paid. That's right - 28-32 hours. The State of Connecticut
has a 32 hour work week, and the employees get paid for 32 hours.</p>
<p>If 10 years is an accurate assessment, that will let us old farts
age out and retire so the younger don't get fired.</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>On another note, I just wrote a movie script. Okay, no I didn't
- Bard wrote it for me. Bard gave me three choices, and I liked
#2. I reformatted it into a two-column script, had to fix two
errors (apparently Bard doesn't know that the first word following
a colon is capitalized, and it didn't know the difference between
cocoa and cacao). Bard also snuck in something about ethical
sourcing of chocolate. So I began researching it. So now the
script is 70% AI written and I rewrote the last 30% in a
revolutionary twist at the end. This is in contrast to a short
short film I had in the First Annual AI FilmFest in October where
the script was 70% human and 30% AI written. </p>
<p>In both cases, the actual script generation was done in about 15
seconds. In the October film, it took me 40 minutes to reformat
it. In the current project, it took me 3 hours to
reformat/research.</p>
<p>AI is our friend, but we really need to keep a tight leash on it.<br>
</p>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">Regards,
George Toft</pre>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 12/6/2023 2:00 PM, trent shipley via
PLUG-discuss wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CAEFLybJowrpMy4uyc+KyCBeEv6KJh==9Hscu4bVnLCs1MZ_h1w@mail.gmail.com">
<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
<div dir="ltr">If AI can take over junior level knowledge jobs
now, it stands to reason AI will mature fast enough to keep pace
with the rate at which junior level practitioners would have
gained experience to do mid-level and senior jobs.
<div><br>
</div>
<div>It's an eventuality that the robots make people obsolete.
The only questions are </div>
<div>1) whether it happens in 5, 20, or 200 years.</div>
<div>2) a) whether all humans live affluent fulfilling lives, b)
whether Elon Musk, Bill Gates, and Jeff Bezos live affluent,
fulfilling lives, and the rest of us live in Darfur. c) Skynet
suffers no primates to live.</div>
</div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Sat, Dec 2, 2023 at 2:35 PM
George Toft via PLUG-discuss <<a
href="mailto:plug-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org"
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">plug-discuss@lists.phxlinux.org</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote"
style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">Thanks
for posting.<br>
<br>
IMHO, the future is not in tech, as this article defined it,
but closely <br>
related: Identity and Access Management (IAM) and Privileged
Access <br>
Management (PAM), Mainframe operations (yes, mainframes are
still here), <br>
Red Team (ooooh - sexy :) ), and Data Analytics and Machine
Learning. <br>
The pay is definitely comparable to this article's top 5, if
not higher.<br>
<br>
Whereas I liked being a sysadmin, my job got shipped to
Argentina for <br>
$6/hr (last I heard, they were up to $10/hr). That's a really
bad place <br>
to be. If you want to live a nice lifestyle ... and I've been
saying <br>
this since 2005 ... you have to do something that can't be
off-shored. <br>
Do something that must be done in this country. Lately, this
has come <br>
to mean:<br>
<br>
1. Be inquisitive. How can I make this cheaper, faster, less
<br>
resource-intensive? Why did it break? How do I keep it from
ever <br>
breaking again? Will this failure happen elsewhere? Three
principles <br>
for success: Make it easier for the User; make it cheaper;
make it more <br>
efficient.<br>
<br>
2. Challenge the status quo. Just because it has always been
this way <br>
doesn't mean it's the best way now.<br>
<br>
3. Write the solutions flowcharts. If you follow a script
(AKA <br>
flowchart) to arrive at solutions to problems, you can be
replaced by an <br>
AI, specifically, an expert system, and in 5 years, a
Generative AI like <br>
Bard or ChatGPT. Expert systems been around since the 60's.
Hell, I <br>
wrote an AI (simple machine learning) in 1990 that corrected
spelling <br>
errors at the command line based on user performance. You
need to be <br>
the one generating the flow chart for the folks to follow.<br>
<br>
4. Be able to create metrics on everything you do. "If you
can't <br>
measure it, you can't manage it" is the mantra of management
this <br>
decade. I've had to become really creative with my metrics to
show <br>
improvement over time, especially when I begin to alter User
behavior <br>
before I figured out the metric. Oopsies. I've also
discovered how to <br>
create metrics that track the adoption and consumption of our
services, <br>
which helps management when they choose insane paths like
replacing a <br>
Gartner Magic Quadrant product some some Open Source stuff
that's <br>
"freeeee." For those that don't know me, I've been an OS
advocate since <br>
1998, but there ain't no such thing as a free lunch and when
Managers <br>
see $0.00 licensing costs, they oftentimes fail to understand
the local <br>
engineering effort required to meet that Proprietary product's
<br>
capabilities. Yes, this is my hot topic this week as I battle
three <br>
levels of management on a fool-hardy decision whose
ramifications they <br>
don't understand.<br>
<br>
I'm in the process of changing careers. The biggest problem I
see is <br>
the total lack of people that can do the above. Our
replacements don't <br>
exist. My whole US team is within 5 years of
retirement/resignation and <br>
we have nobody to replace us. Wanna thrive in the next 20
years, be the <br>
one that can do the above. Be our replacements.<br>
<br>
BTW - I just had a film in the First Annual AIFilmFest and I
interrupted <br>
the film to sound the alarm about Generative AI taking over
junior level <br>
jobs. But I rant ...<br>
<br>
Cheers!<br>
<br>
George Toft<br>
<br>
On 12/2/2023 7:30 AM, Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss wrote:<br>
> Hi,<br>
><br>
> Found thins interesting:<br>
><br>
> <a
href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2023/12/01/these-are-the-10-highest-paying-tech-jobs-in-the-us/?sh=276f0e8c515a"
rel="noreferrer" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2023/12/01/these-are-the-10-highest-paying-tech-jobs-in-the-us/?sh=276f0e8c515a</a>
<br>
><br>
><br>
> Keith<br>
> ---------------------------------------------------<br>
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