Opportunity

[David Schwartz]

I’m really not trying to get into a political debate, except that the “doom and gloom” stuff seems to keep coming from the same sources, in the same way that Arctic cold fronts always come from the North. At the end of the day, it’s just another day.

Keith chose the Subject as “Opportunity” and then started the discussion assuming “doom and gloom”. Smart investors make money whether the market is going up, down, or sideways. I don’t pay attention to this nonsense, and the best political advice I have is for others to ignore it as well.

For quite a while I watched several news broadcasts daily, and one day I was sitting there and had this epiphany: this is like listening to a daily update of a horse race that just keeps going on ... day after day, week after week, month after month, forever. 

You tune in each day and hear this horse is edging out this other horse, and you hear interviews about the people riding them, with people giving their opinions about how each rider’s background is affecting their strategy and justifying their current position in the race today. Each day the horses are in slightly different places relative to each other, but they’re all moving forward. Sometimes one trips and falls, and all hell breaks loose. There are dozens of horses and riders in the race, and MILLIONS of people watching and opining on what’s going on. 

EVERYBODY HAS AN OPINION. So what? 

The thing is, from one day to the next, NONE OF THE OPINIONS MATTER. What matters is THE RACE EACH OF US IS IN OURSELVES.

Some people choose to see “doom and gloom” while others choose to see “everything is looking up”. 

I tend to go with this: The sun is going to keep rising every day, and life will go on given half a chance. Everything else is just noise.

I don’t claim to have a crystal ball, but I do believe that when a small number of companies are responsible for a significant portion of financial leverage in the world, the overall economy is going to tend to follow in their wake, even if just a little. That’s were we’re at today, especially in the tech world.

Beyond that, I believe there’s a huge mega-trend happening in the world today, which is tied to climactic changes. You can listen to the pundits all you want, but we cannot deny the fact that average temperatures are rising, watersheds are drying up, and water is becoming scarce. This may be man-made and it may be simply one of Mother Nature’s cyclic activities. But it’s not something any ONE of us can do much about. 

Russia is trying to blow up a nuclear plant in Ukraine. They might as well drop a nuclear bomb there. Talk about cutting off their nose to spit their face! But that’s what they seem to think is needed to “win” — win by blowing up their own feet. Yes, there are truly stupid people in the world and we’re watching them destroy themsevles day by day in that part of the world. It’s not as if Nature is doing enough damage to agricultural production, these guys want to ensure one of the most fertile farming regions of the world won’t be able to produce ANYTHING for CENTURIES. What kind of idiots do that?

One thing is certain: a LOT of people around the world are going to start freaking out and throwing money at would-be solutions. THERE LIES OPPORTUNITY!

Look at all of the things that burn fossil fuels; that run inefficiently and produce more heat than needed; that are expensive to break-down and recycle; that waste water, energy, and can’t be re-used — all of these things are going to be looked at with increasing scrutiny by others even as they’re watching the bigger horse races, and they are going to be making buying decisions based on this stuff. 

Yes, this list is about technology. And technology presents a HUGE OPPORTUNITY to fill the needs of people who are going to be looking to down-size, right-size, and make their lives more EFFICIENT. A lot of them are going to be us Baby Boomers who are becoming empty-nesters and want to simplify our lives. What sorts of OPPORTUNITIES DO WE HAVE?

They’re not all technical.


For example, next February the Super Bowl is going to be here in Phoenix again. Last time it was here, I noticed something: you could not get a room or a car for a 75 mile radius from early January to late February. Car rental folks pulled in cars from Tucson, San Diego, LA, Las Vegas, and Alberqueue, and there was STILL A SHORTAGE! 

Low supply combined with high demand caused prices to SKYROCKET.

These people aren’t looking for Linux servers! They want a place to sleep and a car to get around in! If you have a house and you can move out for a few weeks, you might be able to rent your house and car out for $2000-$4000 per week! Now THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY!

Or just buy some nice used cars, put them up on GetAround, and offer to park them at AirBNB places people will be renting next winter. Offer them $100 a week and charge their tenants $500 a week. If that seems like a lot, consider that renting cars at the airport will be starting at $150 PER DAY for most of Jan-Mar!

I suggest using GetAround because those guys have done something with TECHNOLOGY that gives them a leg up on their competition: they have a dongle that plugs into the data plug inside the car and lets customers access the vehicles via an app on their phone. Someone can park the car wherever, put the keys in the glove box, exit the vehicle, lock it up and walk away. It’s ready for the next renter. That is, you don’t need someone there to collect and hand-off the keys when renters come and go. 

Forget the “doom and gloom” nonsense. OPPORTUNITY lies in observing TRENDS and capitalizing on them. Phoenix and Arizona are going to see a surge of nearly 500k tourists this coming winter due to the Super Bowl, and they have already set aside a LOT OF $$$ to spend while they’re here. They are going to spend those $$$ regardless of what the nightly horse-race reports might be saying at that time. The daily horse-race reports are irrelevant! If you’re watching them, then STOP! Watch the larger trends.


Intel is the largest semiconductor company in the world. Apple is no longer using Intel’s chips. That leaves a big hole to fill in Intel’s sales. They’ve known about it for a while now, and they’ve been busy plugging that hole. At the same time, there’s a world-wide “chip shortage”. Seems like a PERFECT OPPROTUNITY FOR INTEL, right? 

The new legislation that was just passed contains a bunch of “incentives” for consumers in the form of tax credits for buying EVs. But more than that, it’s a cosmic-sized CROW-BAR being held over the heads of major corporations who have spent the past 30 years doing all they can to CUT MANUFACTURING COSTS by MOVING OFF-SHORE. These tax credits will ONLY be available to companies who MOVE THEIR PRODUCTION BACK ON-SHORE! 

A lot of them are going to scream and holler like stuck pigs and try everything they can to get politicians to make their lives easier. 

And I guarantee there are plenty of startups who are going to JUMP AT THE OPPORTUNITIES being created by this new legislation to sneak into the holes being created by these OLD-SCHOOL LAZY-ASS COMPANIES who don’t want to change.

Congress has thrown down a challenge to the entire TECH community: INNOVATE OR DIE!

If you’re a company that has bet your future on Li-Ion battery technology, then this certainly looks like DOOM-AND-GLOOM.

If you’re a kid about to attend college and are wondering what to get into: consider BATTERY CHEMISTRY. This will be a GREAT choice for a solid 20-year career path today. And it will be there regardless of what politicians end up doing, because the big fat lazy companies with all the money have been milking Li-Ion technology and invested very little in INNOVATION. That’s the way of the world. And it creates HUGE OPPORTUNITIES in its wake.

I have no idea what Linux has to do with any of this, but the subject was “OPPORTUNITY”. Seize it.

-David Schwartz




> On Aug 18, 2022, at 8:58 AM, techlists at phpcoderusa.com wrote:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> David,
> 
> I have always enjoyed your thoughts, even though we do not agree when it comes to political issues.   And I think your a smart guy.
> 
> On 2022-08-17 03:25, David Schwartz via PLUG-discuss wrote:
> 
> I'll pass on this one because it could get politically charged very quickly and my intention were to try to understand what is coming.
> 
> I posted to this list hoping for thoughts from technical people.
> 
>> I don’t know what you’re referring to exactly about the economy
>> crashing, other than the typical doom-and-gloom nonsense that the
>> right-wing propaganda machinery floods the airwaves with whenever
>> Democrats are in charge of things. The truth is, things are always
>> shifting, slowly but surely.
> 
> I hope it is all doom-and-gloom.  I'm not up for an economic crash.  You and I have lived though some interesting times.
> 
> - Oil embargo, which killed the musical car era.
> - 70's and 80's which kept my wages 20% behind the real cost of living.
> - 30 years of perpetual wars....
> - The creation of the Internet and all that has come with it.
> 
> I do not think what is currently taking place is "right-wing propaganda".
> 
> I am hearing and reading:
> 
> - Ukraine and Russia produce 70% of the worlds wheat which is not making it to the market this year.
> - Ukraine and Russia produce 70% of the worlds commercial fertilizer which is not making it to the market this year.
> - We are experiencing a severe drought world wide.
> - Some are saying there will be famine and food shortages.  I'm seeing vacant shelves at the grocery stores.
> - The dollar is losing it's place as the world's reserve currency. That means dollars going to come home causing even more inflation.
> - Some are saying it could be as bad as the Great Depression.  And I truly hope this is "right-wing propaganda".
> - Some are saying we will see double digit inflation for 10 years.  How do I plan my wife's retirement with that? I'll work till I die...  I did the math.  If I save $1000 today, in 10 years it will have $350 of buying power.
> 
> I was hoping to spend my old age working on my old muscle car and old RV. I do not own either. Oh, and throw in some watching the grass grow.
> 
> I do not want this to turn political.  I am in search of wisdom.
> 
> Here are my thoughts.
> 
> 1) Transition away from Windows and MAC.  Buy some old hardware, while it is cheep.  In fact 6 months from now lots of things might be cheep - new and old.  I read Walmart is laying off 300 executives dues to the slow in the economy and having an over stocked situation.  I would buy as much RAM as you might need for your new and old hardware and replace spinners with SSD drives.
> 
> 2) I know this is a Linux list so I assume most know Linux better that most others.  I am a programmer.  A PHP developer.  I understand most developers do not know Linux.  I recommend learning how to configure and maintain a LAMP server for testing and development.  The P stands for PHP.
> 
> 3) I would recommend that those who do not have the skills to maintain a Linux desktop should burn some midnight oil and learn the basics. I had to move to Windows 6 years ago because of a business need.  Windows 10 has 3 more years before it's end of life.  By that time I will be back on Linux for good.
> 
> 4) Create a blog and journal your learning and experiences.
> 
> 5) If you are looking for a job, find the hiring managers and ask them to mentor you so you can find the door into what you want to do.
> 
> 6) I think a lot of businesses will fail. AND out of the ashes new businesses will form.  These new businesses will need to use technology to their benefit.  What technologies will they need?
> 
> 7) Linux and web programming is turning into, and may have already turned into a cottage industry.  For hosting there only needs to be one admin local to the facility.  All others can work remote.
> 
> 8) Covid caused a shift away from the office to the spare bedroom.  In an effort to save money I think most companies will have a hybrid model. Employees will need to make it into the office periodically while working from home for the majority of the time. The amount of office space necessary to run a business will shrink.  Office space should be cheep for the foreseeable future.
> 
> 9) We have become a mail order economy.  I only buy groceries in person and that will change within the next few month.  I used to buy everything retail.  Not anymore.  And that saves me time and gas.  I tip so the tip is probably what I would spend on gas... however it does spare my car wear and tear.
> 
> Those are my thoughts.  I would like to hear from others.
> 
> 
>> As for technology, I’d make this simple observation:
>> At some point, the world leader in CPU chips — Intel — was
>> following along the same path they had been taking for years and was
>> working on a 5 GHz CPU when they realized that as they kept trying to
>> speed-up CPUs, the amount of effort needed to extract the heat from
>> the chips would make the hardware far too expensive and cumbersome to
>> remain viable. So they decided that multiple CPUs on the chip where
>> the CPU speed was around 2-3 GHz would be better in the long-run.
>> I’m guessing that the folks at a world leader in computer
>> engineering — Apple Computer — also figured this out. Intel sells
>> chips; Apple sells computer systems. Dell buys Intel chips and
>> integrates video cards from another vendor that use Intel’s GPUs.
>> Apple doesn’t really care who makes what; they just want to maximize
>> their profits.
>> Coincidentally, video cards have been hard to come by because the GPUs
>> have been getting hijacked for use by crytocurrency miners. A large
>> portion of these have Intel GPUs on them.
>> Apple decided it might make more sense to simply put a bunch of CPUs
>> and GPUs on one substrate and then tune their software to run on this
>> sort of architecture, alleviating the dependency on separate CPU and
>> GPU chips and cards. There’s a side-effect in that nobody is going
>> to be hijacking their GPUs for other purposes.
>> Intel apparently didn’t want to lose the revenues they’ve been
>> earning from their GPU chip sales to crypto miners and, well, Apple is
>> no longer using either Intel’s CPUs or GPUs.
>> So while some say the economy is “crashing”, the 10 largest
>> corporations in the world are all reporting record profits and growth.
>> The stuff politicians are doing to continue long-term policies that
>> enable corporations to siphon off more and more money from consumers
>> is appalling, and may well lead to a lot more discomfort and pain for
>> consumers, but certainly not from corporate shareholders and execs. If
>> you want to profit from that shift, then buy stocks in these large and
>> growing companies. Warren Buffet has large holdings in them, as well
>> as Apple. He also owns a large utility company in Nevada.
>> Speaking of utility companies, one thing that is surely going to help
>> “crash” the economy (for consumers) over the coming decade is the
>> increasing growth of EVs and their need to get their fuel from the
>> power grid. The same power grid that’s going to be used to power
>> computers and crypto miners. Some with politically-motivated arguments
>> might see it as convenient that states like Arizona have passed laws
>> that give utility companies the power to punish consumers who want to
>> install their own renewable energy sources and batteries to become
>> independent of the power grid. Yes, we’re talking about those folks
>> who’d like to unhook from the inevitable increases we’re going to
>> see in the cost of electricity, especially since the cost of fuel to
>> power generators is also skyrocketing — and the profits from those
>> price increases is nearly all flowing into the bank accounts of the
>> monarchy of Saudi Arabia (with the help of elected officials in
>> Congress, both past and present, members of both political parties).
> 
> I have been pondering the grid issue.  Was not long ago the electricity vendors where complaining about the load that cellular phones and other devices where putting on the grid.
> 
> 
> 
>> The tea leaves are pretty clear to many readers: there’s a big shift
>> towards more and more things in our life that require electricity to
>> run, and it’s inevitable that the cost of said power is going to go
>> up. But the price of gas is also going up, which is contributing to
>> the increase in power costs. Buying a bunch of old computers that
>> consume 3x the power of the newest computers does not seem like a
>> smart way to avoid increases in the cost of electricity.
> 
> Are you saying my 8 year old Dell i5 is using too much power and I should replace it?
> 
> Not sure how to evaluate that.  My i5 is old and has 4 cores, 16GB of RAM, and a 1TB SSD.  It is paid for so I wonder if spending $500 or more, to replace it is really worth the savings in electricity.  Maybe I would be better served by adding 1k or 2k of solar to the mix.
> 
> You seem to be in favor of dumping old iron in favor of more efficient hardware. I'm thinking the opposite.  I'm in favor of adding RAM (if needed) and an SSD drive to old stuff and use Linux ... kind of a counter culture thing... Off grid solar has always appealed to me because it "feels" counter culture.  Taking control of ones life.
> 
> Remember the good old days about 20 years ago?  Linux was counter culture.  I first learning of Linux in 1998 and I ran out and bought a box set.  I was hooked because it was not main stream, it was counter culture.  I'm thinking we need to get some of that back.
> 
> 
>> Make your home more thermally efficient so you don’t need to run
>> your A/C as much. Replace electronic equipment with newer lower-power
>> stuff. Reduce your overall carbon footprint by 10%. Grow your own
>> fruits and veggies. Set up a wind turbine or solar panels to charge
>> batteries that power your electronic equipment at home, but do not
>> connect them to the grid. Buy an inexpensive EV to get around town,
>> because in the long-run it’ll be far cheaper than a gas-powered
>> vehicle. (I recommend a Bolt or a Leaf as they’re the cheapest EVs
>> on the market today and will remain so for 2-3 years due to factors
>> like the global chip shortage. I got a 2019 Leaf SL Plus, and I *LOVE*
>> it! It only costs me 4¢/mile in electricity to drive.)
> 
> Your car sounds nice.  I home office and have for a long, long time.  With online shopping and delivery I might drive 50 - 200 miles a month. My goal is to get down to 50 miles per month every  month.  I think I can.
> 
> I own a 2009 Nissan Xterra.  It gets 16 - 20 MPG.  Not very good.  I do not recall the last time I purchased gas.  I fill up at 3/4 of a tank.  I think I buy a 1/4 tank of gas every 6 - 8 weeks.
> 
> I hear some in D.C. say I should buy an EV.  Ironically my Nissan might outlive me.  Pretty sure it will so why replace?
> 
>> While you’re at it, figure out how to generate $100-$200 per day
>> online to supplement your income.
> 
> Good advice.  That was what I was hoping to hear. Any thoughts on how?
> 
> $100-$200 a day or $3000 - $6000 per month might replace some people's day job.
> 
> I've been following Income School.  I can tell you the Internet is very competitive.  Some are able to make affiliate marketing work for them. To do so one needs to be able to write and to write articles for what people are searching for, and that are competitive for that topic.
> 
> I do think we are at a crossroads where we will see more people work remote and freelance/contract work will start to be the norm.
> 
> My suggestion is lean how to create an LLC, create a blog, learn your niche and how to get traffic, especially targeted traffic that creates business leads.  Or one can scour the job sites and look for remote in your area of expertise.
> 
> I think the real opportunities moving forward will be in the area of freelancing.
> 
> I think we are about to go through another change in how we work.  Covid got us out of the office and now I think a lot of jobs are going to be short term and will be 1099 contract.
> 
> There are a few things to learn about to survive as a 1099 contractor.  It is not like working W2.  You will need to pay for your own benefits, time off, training, equipment, and workspace.  You will need to understand what you need to live on, what you are worth, and that not all of your time is income producing.  For short-term projects, I figure 1/2 of my time is taken up by non income producing activates.
> 
> I am interested in hearing from the list.
> 
> 
> 
> 
>> -David Schwartz
>>> On Aug 15, 2022, at 9:31 AM, Keith Smith via PLUG-discuss
>>> <plug-discuss at lists.phxlinux.org> wrote:
>>> Hi,
>>> About 24 years ago I worked for a guy who used to say "There is
>>> opportunity in chaos.".
>>> Given the chip shortage and other things taking place in the global
>>> space, present and future, I am wondering what do you see as
>>> opportunity in this present/coming chaos?
>>> FWIW I am an old guy who has started to realize that being forward
>>> thinking is VERY important.
>>> To keep things relevant I see that hardware is finally powerful
>>> enough that 10 year old hardware can run Linux rather well.  If the
>>> economy really is going to crash it might be worth acquiring some
>>> old iron, SSD drives, and RAM for future projects.
>>> Your thoughts?
>>> Thanks!!
>>> ---------------------------------------------------
>>> PLUG-discuss mailing list - PLUG-discuss at lists.phxlinux.org
>>> To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings:
>>> https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss <https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss> [1]
>> Links:
>> ------
>> [1] https://u2206659.ct.sendgrid.net/ls/click?upn=SJEG7TF39YLaAIMD0HhsfC6E-2FcJXOs2D1VhGcvn2YkObFLMBOC3gmante55BOqf2F-2ByuZjZxeWAcK3DSlXP4Xtp4dQImX1G2Oq-2BQoN6woQ4-3DGQCz_o-2BjQxMsWfboH-2B-2BcY2qb3IYCoqvthnvff9ftZz0pNEJ2tF1jbVlVBtrlaPYq4av3GbSfa5IB-2BgC7AIuStRqkxSmG9LCziM-2BAFzPbP3QcGSaV544d1zAheLSAo-2FqkoVY6RO6zfNrayVpiJqk4guM9vumbD9pN3ql3atS1EsAHOglhHOjwctqEPNiEq3svPaDh1-2Fm5cNBrYCCD3qzHxCYjGmuV0-2BuiDkt-2BqhSFfowi9R5Q-3D <https://u2206659.ct.sendgrid.net/ls/click?upn=SJEG7TF39YLaAIMD0HhsfC6E-2FcJXOs2D1VhGcvn2YkObFLMBOC3gmante55BOqf2F-2ByuZjZxeWAcK3DSlXP4Xtp4dQImX1G2Oq-2BQoN6woQ4-3DGQCz_o-2BjQxMsWfboH-2B-2BcY2qb3IYCoqvthnvff9ftZz0pNEJ2tF1jbVlVBtrlaPYq4av3GbSfa5IB-2BgC7AIuStRqkxSmG9LCziM-2BAFzPbP3QcGSaV544d1zAheLSAo-2FqkoVY6RO6zfNrayVpiJqk4guM9vumbD9pN3ql3atS1EsAHOglhHOjwctqEPNiEq3svPaDh1-2Fm5cNBrYCCD3qzHxCYjGmuV0-2BuiDkt-2BqhSFfowi9R5Q-3D>
>> ---------------------------------------------------
>> PLUG-discuss mailing list - PLUG-discuss at lists.phxlinux.org <mailto:PLUG-discuss at lists.phxlinux.org>
>> To subscribe, unsubscribe, or to change your mail settings:
>> https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss <https://lists.phxlinux.org/mailman/listinfo/plug-discuss>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.phxlinux.org/pipermail/plug-discuss/attachments/20220818/52901d11/attachment.html>