Implications Of Yahoo-MSFT merger

[Joshua Zeidner]

On 2/1/08, Darrin Chandler <dwchandler at stilyagin.com> wrote:
> On Fri, Feb 01, 2008 at 05:32:51PM -0700, Alan Dayley wrote:
> > General prognostications:
> > - After some discussion and hand waving about monopolies and too much
> > power in one company, the deal will be approved.
> > - Yahoo employees will be applying to Google and any other place even
> > faster than they are already.
> > - Yahoo sign-in will be migrated to MS Passport or whatever they call it
> > now days.  With an Active-X control.  Which is when I would HAVE to say
> > goodbye to Flickr.
> > - The Yahoo name will be kept but the guts methodically morphed to the
> > "try to please everyone just like MSN doesn't" design goal.
> > - Flickr and Yahoo Mail will be integrated into the new MS Office Live
> > service to begin loosing relevance rapidly.
> > - In three years MS will have molded it all into the MS plain yogurt
> > such that the Yahoo name will be only an historical footnote like Hotmail.
>
> Pretty much what I was thinking. I hadn't thought about the Passport
> thing, but I suspect you're dead on.
>
> In any case, neither MS nor Yahoo has been able to win out against
> Google separately. I don't see any magic synergy thing happening that
> will change that. Worse, Yahoo could take a chance and do wacky
> interesting things. I'm pretty sure MS will squash that, given some
> time.

  I'd have to agree with you both... I expect M$ to exploit Yahoo's
user base to gain new 'long-term committed users' by way of their much
celebrated *screw the user gently* management techniques.  They will
probably use all the tactics described above and then some.  I would
say that in the 5-year interval, Google's consumer-facing services
will ultimately win out.  I have some experience using their APIs and
they are well designed, well documented, well supported, etc.  And
there have been a number of interesting developments lately.  M$ has a
solid record of losing every play they make in this realm.  They will
most likely continue with their strategy of trying to co-opt ( EEE )
various web standards, lose at it, and bleed money.  In addition-
Google is advancing on their flanks with their web-based Office
competitor.  Needless to say, I'm bearish on MSFT.

>
> I'll be holding onto my Google stock, thank you very much. ;-)

  Even though Google may be set for growth, their stock is still
overvalued.  I tend to think we are about to see a cycle where all
asset classes return to strict fundamentals.

  -jmz




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