Why Linux will win and Micro$oft will lose

[George Toft]

Joining the battle . . . 


Short version: Converting to Linux costs much, much more.  An 
example is presented for a "hypothetical" local company converting 
their desktop to Linux.  Result is that it will cost over
$900K - just to avoid a $150K license.


Long Version:
There in only one reason Linux will not monopolize the desktop,
and you said it:
> The all American Dollar rules. What becomes
> a standard is determined by economics


Big companies spend big bucks.  Big bucks demand support 
contracts so the Board of Directors and every manager all
the way down the food chain can point the finger at someone
else when XYZ app breaks.  Let's take a big financial 
organization here in the valley that has a blue box for a 
logo.  Do you think they are going down to Fry's to buy
bargain boxes to put Linux on?  The decision makers are
taken out to lunch/dinner/golfing by the IBM Sales Team.
(Did I mention the CEO of one company is on the Board of 
Directors for the other?)  That way, if there is a problem 
with the computers, IBM is on site in a flash with a replacement.  
And it runs Windows NT, so all the users can use Visio, Word, 
Excel, and Lotus Notes.

So now you might say, let's migrate them to StarOffice and
some Linux Notes Client (which, by the way doesn't exist, but
you can kludge it under WINE).  Big companies (big money) are 
so entrenched with the Windows technology on the desktop, they 
will never switch.  The migration simply costs too much for 
the benefit gained.

Let us convert 3000 users from Windows to Linux.  We save 3000
licenses.  But they come with the computer - part of that per
computer licensing plan from Microsoft.  Sure, we can buy 
boxes with Linux preloaded from IBM, but MS gets their royalty,
and the box costs the same.  

For argument's sake, let's say IBM discounts the price by the
Windows License (assume to be $50).  We just saved $150,000.
Now train 3000 users (assumed employee base for local blue box
financial company) for 1 hour on how to use it.  We just spent 
$36,000 and have nothing to show for it.  Consider lost 
productivity as the users get used to the new look and feel.  
Assume 50% less productivity for one week and we just lost 
another $720,000.  Add to that the users copying their files 
from the old computer and personalizing the desktop, and you 
lose another half day, for another $144K.

So, how is it that Linux saves us money?  We just spent $900K 
to avoid paying $150K in licensing.

The only way Linux will save money on the desktop is in small 
companies, or very early in the IT adoption process.  We have
to avoid the labor-intensive migration costs.

An alternative plan would be to cut labor costs 84%, then it
will be cost effective, putting out $12/hour worker at $2/hr, 
which is not legal in that industry.

George


jeffrey l koehn wrote:
> 
> Linux will win and Micro$oft will lose. So
> sit back and watch it happen.
> 
> That's right, Linux will be on every desktop
> and server and you can damn me all to hell
> for saying so, but that is how it will be.
> The all American Dollar rules. What becomes
> a standard is determined by economics
> ( the cost of the product).
> There was a time when you could get Windows 3.1,
> for $30.00 and that is when Micro$oft
> became a standard, it was'nt because of
> superior technology.
> The genie (GPL, Linux, Open-Souce) was let out
> of the bottle long time ago and as time passes
> it will consume everything. If you ask me, it
> reached critical mass in 1998. The genie can not
> be put back into the bottle. And so the
> next business/technology model has
> already been determined.
> 
> Why?
> Because:
> 1)Lower Cost ( The Linux Kernel doesn't cost anything)
> 2)Open-source Kernel
> 3)The "GPL, Linux, Open-Source Kernel"
> is the perfect technology foundation
> for Manufacturing and the masses
> because people, businesses, universities,
> governments contribute to it.
> 4) Linux can scale up or down
> 5) Linux is hardware agnostic
> 6) "Linux, Open-Source" can and
>      will morph into future tecnologies
>      that will benefit all.
> 
> If your not using Linux and your
> still using MS windows, you better
> wake up and smell the coffee
> because the world has changed.
> ------------------------------cyclox
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