Why Linux will win and Micro$oft will lose

[Victor Odhner]

Tom Achtenberg wrote:
> I agree with everything you said.  These are many of the very
> reasons we have not deployed Linux accross the board at our
> company.  Most of the users would hate it as would management.

I also agree with what "cg.mk.snow" <cg.mk.snow@home.com> said.
I'm here because I like Linux and believe it has a future.
But MICROS~1 has a future too.  They have defined what a desktop
looks like, and they will remain the standard desktop for a long
time to come.

The key is to understand who the users are.  Linux is a big place,
and contains the answers to a lot of the computing world's ills,
but someone has to find those answers.  It falls upon us, the
techies, to package Linux-based solutions for organizations and
for ordinary people.  If falls upon companies like RedHat to
integrate a Linux desktop SO smooth that Grandma can stick the
CD into the slot and be reading her e-mail the next time she
looks at the screen.

Microsoft has accomplished this, and has reaped the rewards.
Now they are becoming increasingly obnoxious, and this will be
an opportunity for alternative offerings to get a foothold.
But a strong majority of users aren't going anywhere until
Grandma can have a one-click installation.

And then, guess what?  A lot of the woes affecting Microsoft
users will come to haunt the everyday users of Linux.  They
will not have to pay yearly tribute to Redmond, that's the
main difference.  But they will want all the features enabled
on their systems, and will download all sorts of poison, and
we techies can't protect them against themselves.  Remember,
the first successful Internet worm operated in the Unix world.
And Microsoft is beginning to offer hardening options for
their systems.

In the back office, in the lab, in the embedded device,
in all the places where people try to think like engineers,
Microsoft will lose some market share to Linux.  And on the
consumer desktop, especially in other countries to begin with,
Linux will give people an alternative IF THEY CARE ENOUGH TO
EXERCISE IT.

I think in the next few years many companies and government
units will move away from the universal Microsoft desktop.
That will be our first strong opportunity to save people
some serious money.  For a long time, any business will
probably need to have a few Microsoft systems, but internal
users will be able to do their jobs just fine with well
configured Linux systems.

Still, most people have other things to do than second-guess
their technology choices.  Face it, the average user does not
suffer that much pain using Microsoft systems.  We had better
not expect them to make the jump to Linux unless WE make it
compellingly easy and cheap for them to do so, while still
figuring out how to make a living in the process.

Vic
http://members.home.com/vodhner/resume.html